DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Lineup Picks Week 15: NFL DFS Advice
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Tom Brady($5900)- Tom Brady makes for my top cash game QB this week the total is sitting at 48 with the patriots as 7.5 point road favorites, brady sits at a 75% success rate against the spread following a regular season loss and covering by an average of 12 points. Brady spreads the ball around enough to where correlation with a wr1 or te isnt a must in cash.
Nick Mullens($4800)- Another game I am liking to go over on its 45 over/under, these teams just met in week 13 the total hit 59. Mullens finished with 414 yards and two touchdowns good for 26.7dk points in a 16-43 loss.at this point they aren’t playing for much except their pride Kyle Shanahan is still the QB whisperer and at $4800 you don’t need much to hit value.
Kirk Cousins($6200) –Don’t let that opponent rank on DK scare you. Miami ranks 26th against the pass and grades out 27th overall, this should be a get right spot for cousins and the Vikings (please note all Vikings are gpp plays for me this week, this new offense and scheme is yet to be seen after they fired OC Defillipo and promoted QB coach Kevin Stefanski), all the numbers add up here for cousins to have a monster game after all of the doubt and criticism as of late the narrative is there for another “you like that” moment.
Mitch Trubisky ($6000), Josh Allen ($5800)- Both of these dudes have been what you would call hyper-efficient. Trubisky example 26 passing attempts 6 TDs for 354 yards against Tampa Bay and Josh Allen with 100+ rushing yards in his last 3 games which by the way is more than he had his entire college career at Wyoming (I don’t think this is sustainable). I think this week I lean more toward Trubisky people are starting to hop on the Allen train by Sunday, he may not even be considered a GPP play.
Saquon Barkley/Ezekiel Elliot/Leonard Fournette– This is a week where a majority of the field are going to the top 3 RBs on this slate and rightfully so, when I’m looking at cash game RBs we are looking at volume and total touches all 3 guys I would expect between 25-35 total touches Zeke and Saquon add excellent upside with their involvement in the passing game, Fournette sits in the middle of the top dogs and inconsistent plays so he makes the article by default.
Jeff Wilson Jr/Jaylen Samuels/Marcus Murphy-consider these plays for cash and or if starters are out.
David Johnson($7100)/Dalvin Cook($6500)- These are my top end GPP RB plays for the week. Obviously if you can fit in the top 3, that’s where you need to be, but DJ and Dalvin offer extremely high upside. DJ’s matchup is one of the best on the slate and Atlanta funnels passes to running backs. It is very encouraging to see DJ get 10 targets in week 14, he has 40 point upside in this matchup if he can’t get it done against Atlanta he can’t against any other team as they rank dead last against the run. Dalvin has yet to see a full workload since coming back from injury but his involvement in the passing game provides a safer floor than DJ. It should be interesting to see how Minnesota responds as a team with a new offensive coordinator.
Sony Michel($5400)/Joe Mixon($6100)- We have seen the upside here with two 25 point games posting 18-23 total touches and James Develin has vultured 3 TDs from Michel on the 1 yard line over the last two weeks. The only reason Mixon isn’t a cash game lock is the inconsistency in volume and in the passing game 11-14 carries on average and standout games where there are 21-26 carries
Kenyan Drake($4200)/Jordan Howard($3900)- I’m looking at these two as low-tier GPP running back options. The game-script in this Miami/Minnesota game could favor Drake heavily. Facing a top 10 rush defense and Miami playing from behind which should limit Gore and work in Drake’s favor. Howard is just one of three players below $4k that could potentially see 14-22 touches (Howard, Blount, if Kerryon is out and Marcus Murphy if bills RBs are out) the bang for buck is just too hard to ignore here he just eclipsed 100 yards for the first time in 2018 last week on 19 carries.
Since we are paying up in cash for the top 3 RBs we are going to have to find value at WRs in the $4k range. I am looking at receivers that own around 33% of their teams target share and total air yards. Let’s take a look at the
Seth Roberts($3700)- He’s playing terrible passing with def 6 and 7 targets over the past two weeks
Taylor Gabriel($4200)-averaging 6.5 targets per game very hard to get consistent volume this week down in this price range.
Top-Tier GPP Plays:
Juju Smith-Schuster($8000)-It’s 2018 and as crazy as it sounds juju has more upside than antonio brown if I’m paying for any Steeler its juju at $500 less than ab, as i expect this game to shoot out and be one of the best on the slate
Stefon Diggs($7600)- Diggs is really worth a dart throw this week if you like the narrative with cousins Diggs could be in line for a great game it’s a gamble not knowing how the offense will look with a new offensive coordinator.
Amari Cooper($7500)/T.Y. Hilton($6800)-if you are going to play one of these guys i think you have to really consider playing the guy on the opposite side and or Zeke as they are both key factors to their offenses success, both in a very tough matchup, im almost inclined to say at this point ty hilton is matchup proof.
Mid-Tier GPP Plays
Allen Robinson($5500)- Robinson has been super disappointing this year with his only breakout game coming against Detroit in week 10 where he broke out for 34.3 DK points. He’s in a really good matchup and in my opinion should be playing in a close contest here. The last meeting between these two teams the packers rallied from a 20-0 deficit to win 24-23.
Calvin Ridley($5000)- The falcons can’t run the ball period. They are going to have to throw it a lot. I expect Ryan to have 35-45 attempts and Arizona has struggled against WR2s. Ridley is a boom or bust play with a super low floor, play at your own risk.
Dante Pettis($4400)-Ok, Pettis has essentially taken over as the 49ers WR1 with 6 and 7 targets in 4 straight games and 4 touchdowns in 4 games, one of my favorite mid-tier cash plays of the week.
Jordy Nelson($4200)- Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 5 against the pass and Jordy can still put up solid numbers with a breakout in week 3 vs Miami. I think 10 is a solid floor against this defense with a ceiling of 30+, he’s worth a flyer this week on an ugly slate.
John Ross($4000)- Believe it or not, Gareon Conley has shut down two top tier WRs over the past two weeks in Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill. I expect him to do the same against Tyler Boyd, so there should be plenty of targets to spread around in Cincinnati. Ross has big play ability and the Raiders defense is in the bottom 5 in giving up plays of 50 or more yards.
Trent Sherfield($3400)- A lot of you probably haven’t heard of Sherfield until last week with Christian kirk on IR, Sherfield played 92% of the offensive snaps. He finished with 5 receptions on 7 targets good for 77 yards at $3400 you can’t ask for much more opportunity for the price.
Vernon Davis ($3200)- I really only have one tight end I’m considering for cash and on this ugly slate and that’s Vernon Davis. With Jordan Reed out, Davis will play every snap with a tight end formation on the field, he should be a solid security blanket for new QB Josh Johnson.
Eric Ebron($5900)/Gronk($5800)- Tight end is pretty cut and dry this week with no value below this range with upside all four top TEs are in play these are just the two I am most interested in rostering.
About The Author:
Houston Bronner ,a semi professional DFS player who, already this nfl season, has 11 top 20 finishes in tournaments of 300k players or more including a 15th place finish in week 14 on Draftkings in the one million 20 max entry(360k entries)turning $3 into $2500. I actively play on Draftkings and will be playing the players in this article DK Handle: tittsburgfeelers89.
My goals for the audience of this article and any content I put out is to help players who want to learn about the process of being a successful DFS player. Part of my strategy as an analyst is to be transparent and clearly explain that it is not always about the weekly winnings or losses it is about the process, and if your process is right at the end of the day you will be profitable over time. I will never be afraid to give you a bold or contrarian play I have. At the end of the day, my goal is to empower you with enough knowledge to make informed decisions for your lineups.